And the winner is… ?
After more than a month of fighting, both sides have declared victory.
“Hezbollah attacked Israel. Hezbollah started the crisis, and Hezbollah suffered a defeat in this crisis,
Similarly, Nasrallah declared that his guerrillas achieved a “strategic, historic victory” over Israel.Now let’s review things a little bit.
Israel went into this war in order to:
1) Get its captured soldiers back.
2) Weaken Hezballah.
3) Help the Lebanese people “get ride” of Hezballah.Here is what they accomplished:
1) They failed to retrieve the two soldiers and will inevitably only get them back through negotiations.
2) The last day of fighting saw Hezballah launch more than 200 rockets on Israel. Hence, they were hardly weakened.
3) In terms of public support, Hezballah is now more popular then ever (at least in some circles) and I am sure their recruitment levels are at an all time high.
On a personal level, PM Olmert sought to score some political points by proving to his people that he could protect them. Unfortunately for him, his approval ratings declined from 75% when he first went into this war to 45%.
Hezballah, on the other hand sought to:
1) Get an exchange for the Israeli soldiers (will happen soon)
2) Prove that they are indispensable. (Already accomplished).
Now it would be great and dandy if Hezballah’s victory were synonymous with Lebanon’s victory. Unfortunately for us, that is not the case. Nasrallah can proclaim that he won all he wants; only the fact remains that Lebanon lost.
Lebanon lost 1000 of its civilians, thousands of others were rendered homeless, it lost its bridges and roads, and it lost its cherished tourism sector. In sum, the country lays in ruins. It will take years to re-built what has been destroyed and it will take years for the Lebanese people to even consider peace with Israel.
Our only claim to victory is that we showed the world that we couldn’t be bullied.
Furthermore, what we learned from this war is equally important: the international community does not support us nor will it intervene to stop the destruction of Lebanon. Now where does that leave us in regards to the disarmament of Hezballah? Who will protect Lebanon in case something like this happens again? One could argue that this war would not have started if it weren’t for Hezballah. However, ” President Bush and Vice President Cheney were convinced that a successful Israeli bombing campaign against Hezbollah could ease Israel’s security concerns and also serve as a prototype for a potential US preemptive attack to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations.” The plan was sealed prior to the July 12 kidnapping of the soldiers. Read full article here.
However, all of this does not mean that Hezballah gets away scotch free. Nasrallah still needs to explain himself. His self-righteous and arrogant attitude is getting infuriating. Claiming that “the Lebanese army and international troops are “incapable of protecting Lebanon” and that right now is the “wrong time” for a public discussion on disarming the guerrilla group” is not going to cut it anymore. If not now, then when? We need a framework to work with.
Lastly, I believe that this war was a “test” for the Lebanese people. A test to see how united we would be in the face of an enemy, a test that would show whether we would be divided at the first sign of a conflict. Fortunately we passed the test this time, not because we were united but rather because there was a consensus that another civil war would be detrimental. People’s memories proved to be the greatest deterrent. So the question now is: what about the next generation (The one that didn’t live through war)? How will they handle things?
Closer to Peace?
While the war against Lebanon ravages, the United States and its accomplice Britain are working round the clock to “end the hostilities”. Rice was in the region again, doing her best to get a deal, meeting with officials, having fancy lunches, conducting press conferences…etc. Basically, checking up on how the “birth pain of a new Middle East” is going along.
Surely, we must commend all the efforts of this administration to end the conflict. Behind the scenes, they are doubling their efforts to end the conflict. As such:
Amid the Lebanon crisis, she said it seemed the US was ignoring procedure, and she registered her concerns with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
SNP leader Alex Salmond claimed the UK government must decide whether to “be an aircraft carrier” for the US.
…Opposition parties have reacted angrily to a report in the Daily Telegraph newspaper that two chartered Airbus A310 cargo planes filled with laser-guided bombs landed at Prestwick en-route to Israel from the US.” July 27, 2006.
Emmm, surely their efforts will succeed. After all, the weapons that they are sending urgently will make it clear that violence is not the answer and that the only way out of all of this is negotiations.
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